Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT14 KNHC 291500
PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   2( 2)  20(22)   9(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   4( 4)  28(32)  12(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
GREENSBORO NC  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   7( 7)  30(37)   5(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   6( 6)  22(28)   3(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X  11(11)   7(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  1  23(24)  38(62)   2(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   7( 7)  37(44)   7(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X  17(17)  17(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

NEW RIVER NC   34  1  31(32)   6(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  1  34(35)   8(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)

SURF CITY NC   34  9  45(54)  10(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)

WILMINGTON NC  34  4  46(50)  17(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34 31  43(74)   7(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

FLORENCE SC    34  5  51(56)  28(84)   X(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   1( 1)  22(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
FLORENCE SC    64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COLUMBIA SC    34  3  33(36)  29(65)   2(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

LITTLE RIVER   34 32  46(78)  10(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   3( 3)  11(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MYRTLE BEACH   34 40  44(84)   8(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   6( 6)  15(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GEORGETOWN SC  34 43  47(90)   5(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   8( 8)  25(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

CHARLESTON SC  34 67  27(94)   3(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X  29(29)  27(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 71  21(92)   2(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X  31(31)   9(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

AUGUSTA GA     34  3  18(21)  18(39)   1(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
AUGUSTA GA     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAVANNAH GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X  11(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KINGS BAY GA   50  5   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

WAYCROSS GA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

MAYPORT NS FL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL  50 11   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
JACKSONVILLE   50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

DAYTONA BEACH  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH  50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

THE VILLAGES   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ORLANDO FL     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

PATRICK AFB    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

FT PIERCE FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

W PALM BEACH   34 16   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  9   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MARATHON FL    34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NAPLES FL      34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

FT MYERS FL    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CEDAR KEY FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ST MARKS FL    34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

APALACHICOLA   34  6   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COLUMBUS GA    34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GRAND BAHAMA   34 11   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    



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