000
FONT14 KNHC 291500
PWSAT4
TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092022
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
DANVILLE VA 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 12(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 X 7( 7) 30(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
ROCKY MT NC 34 X 6( 6) 22(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 11(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 23(24) 38(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 7( 7) 37(44) 7(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
CHERRY PT NC 34 X 17(17) 17(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
NEW RIVER NC 34 1 31(32) 6(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 34(35) 8(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
SURF CITY NC 34 9 45(54) 10(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
WILMINGTON NC 34 4 46(50) 17(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 31 43(74) 7(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FLORENCE SC 34 5 51(56) 28(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85)
FLORENCE SC 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COLUMBIA SC 34 3 33(36) 29(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
COLUMBIA SC 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
LITTLE RIVER 34 32 46(78) 10(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 40 44(84) 8(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 6( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 43 47(90) 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 8( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CHARLESTON SC 34 67 27(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
CHARLESTON SC 50 X 29(29) 27(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56)
CHARLESTON SC 64 X 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 71 21(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 31(31) 9(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AUGUSTA GA 34 3 18(21) 18(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAVANNAH GA 50 X 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
KINGS BAY GA 50 5 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
JACKSONVILLE 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ORLANDO FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PATRICK AFB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
W PALM BEACH 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MARATHON FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NAPLES FL 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
FT MYERS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBUS GA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE