Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Ian Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT14 KNHC 290859
PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)  14(15)  19(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  21(28)   4(32)   X(32)   X(32)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   2( 2)  14(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   2( 2)  17(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   6( 6)  24(30)   5(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   2( 2)  22(24)  11(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X  16(16)  33(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   3( 3)  36(39)  20(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
FLORENCE SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   2( 2)  22(24)  23(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X  17(17)  40(57)   6(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  1  18(19)  44(63)   6(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  1  12(13)  56(69)   8(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

CHARLESTON SC  34 10  26(36)  46(82)   3(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)  22(22)   7(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 15  25(40)  37(77)   2(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)  20(21)   3(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  1   1( 2)  11(13)  12(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)

SAVANNAH GA    34 14  17(31)  27(58)   3(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

WAYCROSS GA    34 16   6(22)   4(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

MAYPORT NS FL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

GAINESVILLE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

DAYTONA BEACH  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH  50 41   3(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)

THE VILLAGES   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ORLANDO FL     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PATRICK AFB    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT PIERCE FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT PIERCE FL   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

W PALM BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

FT LAUDERDALE  34 14   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

MIAMI FL       34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

HOMESTEAD ARB  34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MARATHON FL    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

KEY WEST FL    34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

CEDAR KEY FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ST MARKS FL    34  4   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

APALACHICOLA   34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34 12   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     



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