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Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT24 KNHC 251455
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 25 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A 
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD... 
PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA...AND UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH 
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA... 
MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL- 
STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS 
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY 
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  79.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  79.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  79.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N  81.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.1N  82.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N  83.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.9N  84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N  84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 28.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N  83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  79.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




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