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Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT24 KNHC 242054
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  77.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  77.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  76.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.6N  78.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N  80.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N  82.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.2N  83.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.9N  84.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.1N  85.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 26.2N  84.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N  83.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  77.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




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