Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Tropical Storm Gert Forecast Discussion



000
WTNT42 KNHC 040842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2023

A small area of disorganized deep convection has been persisting to 
the southeast of the estimated center position.  The intensity 
estimate of 45 kt is based on continuity from earlier scatterometer 
data and a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.  However, the low-level 
circulation of Gert is becoming increasingly disrupted by the much 
larger post-tropical cyclone Idalia.  In fact, Gert may no longer 
have a closed circulation, and it is likely that the system will 
become absorbed by Idalia, and dissipate, later today.

Gert is moving northward at a faster forward speed of around 21 kt.
The cyclone should gradually turn northwestward with additional 
acceleration while it rotates around Idalia, before dissipating. 
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 37.6N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 40.6N  53.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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