Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Tropical Storm Gert Forecast Discussion



977 
WTNT42 KNHC 040235
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

The low-level center of Gert is exposed in proxy-visible satellite 
images tonight. Recent ASCAT-B wind retrievals indicate the surface 
center is becoming elongated and less defined. There are still 
tropical-storm-force winds occurring in the eastern semicircle, with 
scatterometer winds as high as 40-42 kt. However, this is more a 
product of Gert's translational speed than its paltry convective 
structure. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 45 
kt for this advisory.

Gert is moving quickly northward (010/19 kt) while being captured
within the broader cyclonic flow associated with Post-Tropical
Cyclone Idalia. Gert is forecast to accelerate northward to
north-northwestward while it continues rounding the northeastern
portion of Idalia's circulation. The global models show Gert
becoming absorbed on Monday, and the updated NHC forecast predicts
dissipation by 24 h. However, it is entirely possible that Gert
opens into a trough even sooner based on its current structure.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 35.4N  50.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 38.5N  52.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart




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