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Tropical Storm Gert Forecast Discussion

WTNT42 KNHC 032035

Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

All indications suggest that Gert is finally weakening. Gert's 
center has been intermittently exposed since sunrise, displaced to 
the northeast from a small area of persistent deep convection. 
Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have all 
decreased from earlier values. The initial intensity of 45 kt is a 
little above a consensus of the various satellite estimates, but I 
would rather only make a small change until we get a surface wind 
retrieval or another data set to help confirm the apparent weakening 

Gert continues to accelerate toward the north-northeast. A turn
northward as Gert continues to speed up and wrap around the eastern
periphery of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia should begin soon. Most
models indicate that Gert will dissipate in the next 12 h or so, but
the NHC forecast carries it through 24 h since Gert has repeatedly
lasted longer than any model forecast indicated it should. The NHC
track and intensity forecasts are again very similar to previous
advisories, near the HCCA and simple consensus aids.


INIT  03/2100Z 32.8N  51.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 36.1N  51.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 40.0N  54.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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