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Tropical Storm Fiona Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FONT12 KNHC 180855
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072022               
0900 UTC SUN SEP 18 2022                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  52(56)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   8(22)   X(22)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  24(34)   6(40)   X(40)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

GRAND TURK     34  X   4( 4)  11(15)  33(48)  19(67)   3(70)   X(70)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  19(35)   2(37)   X(37)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)   1(19)   X(19)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)

CAPE BEATA     34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)

PUERTO PLATA   34  2   5( 7)  22(29)  17(46)   8(54)   1(55)   X(55)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   4(16)   X(16)   X(16)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  1   7( 8)  10(18)   4(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PONCE PR       34 98   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PONCE PR       50 55  10(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
PONCE PR       64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

AGUADILLA PR   34 84  14(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
AGUADILLA PR   50 18  49(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
AGUADILLA PR   64  2  13(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

SAN JUAN PR    34 94   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
SAN JUAN PR    50 19   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

VIEQUES PR     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT THOMAS   34 60   1(61)   2(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)

SAINT JOHN     34 45   2(47)   2(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)

SAINT CROIX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SABA           34  3   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ST EUSTATIUS   34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

AVES           34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART                                                 



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