941 WTNT32 KNHC 180552 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 200 AM AST Sun Sep 18 2022 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE FIONA HAS STRENGTHENED... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM FIONA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 65.5W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * The coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances Viejo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to Barahona A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Fiona. Watches will likely be required for portions of these areas this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 65.5 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass southwest of the U.S. Virgin Islands and approach Puerto Rico this morning, and then move near or over Puerto Rico this afternoon or evening. Fiona will then move near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands on Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Fiona is expected to become a hurricane before reaching the southern or southwestern coast of Puerto Rico later today. Additional strengthening is expected on Monday and Tuesday while Fiona moves over the southwestern Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently reported at Henry E. Rohlsen Airport on St. Croix. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Puerto Rico today, and are expected in portions of the eastern Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the U.S. Virgin Islands this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and will spread westward across Puerto Rico this morning and across portions of the Dominican Republic later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic tonight. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall: Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 inches or less. British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local maximum of 10 inches possible. Puerto Rico: 12 to 16 inches with local maximum of 20 inches possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Dominican Republic: 4 to 7 inches with local maximum 10 inches possible, particularly on the far eastern coast. Haiti: 1 to 3 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 6 inches. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in Puerto Rico and portions of the eastern Dominican Republic. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft Vieques and Culebra...1 to 3 ft U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 2 ft Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart