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Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT21 KNHC 041451
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
EARL.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  64.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE   0SE   0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  64.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  64.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.4N  65.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N  65.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.6N  65.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N  65.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N  65.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.7N  65.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.2N  64.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 29.6N  61.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N  64.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN




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