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Tropical Storm Earl Forecast Advisory


229 
WTNT21 KNHC 062055
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062022
2100 UTC TUE SEP 06 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  65.8W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N  65.8W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  65.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.0N  65.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.3N  65.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.9N  65.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 29.9N  64.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 31.9N  62.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 165SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 35.0N  59.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 190SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 42.0N  50.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 45.0N  41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N  65.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN





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