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Tropical Storm Don Forecast Discussion

WTNT45 KNHC 201446

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052023
300 PM GMT Thu Jul 20 2023

Don has not intensified this morning, as a curved convective band 
north of the center has begun to weaken. However, visible 
satellite imagery and a recent scatterometer pass indicate that 
the storm remains well-organized around a clear circulation center. 
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates continue to 
support an initial intensity of 45 kt, which is unchanged from the 
prior advisory. However, this may be a bit generous based on the 
late-arriving scatterometer pass.

The initial motion is now 290/7 kt.  Don is expected to turn to 
the northwest and then northward during the next 72 h, associated 
with a low to mid-level ridge that is forecast to build north and 
east of the forecast track. The guidance has continued to shift 
westward after 36 h, and the forecast track after 48 h is thus 
shifted slightly west of the previous forecast.  The forecast track 
represents a blend of the consensus aids and the prior forecast. 
After 72 h, Don is forecast to recurve northeastward and north of 
the mid-level ridge.

Conditions continue to appear favorable for some strengthening 
during the next day or so, and the intensity forecast continues to 
indicate an increase in intensity to 50 kt during early portion of 
the forecast period. After 24 h, as Don begins to traverse cooler 
sea surface temperatures, the cyclone is forecast to cross its 
prior track and begin a weakening trend. By 96 h, Don is forecast 
to degenerate into a post-tropical low and dissipate by 120 h.


INIT  20/1500Z 34.4N  42.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 34.9N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 35.7N  45.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 37.0N  47.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 38.6N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 40.8N  50.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 42.8N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 46.7N  46.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Hogsett/Brown

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