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Tropical Storm Colin Forecast Discussion


128 
WTNT43 KNHC 021449
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022

The center of Colin remains just inland over eastern South Carolina 
this morning, but nearly all of the heavy rains and strong winds are 
off the coastline of South and North Carolina. This asymmetric 
structure is due to about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and since 
the shear is not expected to abate, the worst weather conditions 
should remain along and off the coast throughout the day and into 
Sunday. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.  
Colin's future looks pretty short. An approaching cold front will 
likely cause the circulation to become increasingly elongated 
tonight and Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate or merge 
with the front by early Monday. Little change in intensity is 
expected prior to dissipation.

The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster 
northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take 
the center of Colin along or just offshore of the Carolina coast 
during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western 
Atlantic. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.

2.  Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the 
North Carolina coast through Sunday. 

3.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 33.7N  79.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 12H  03/0000Z 34.3N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  03/1200Z 35.2N  76.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
 36H  04/0000Z 36.1N  74.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




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