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Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Discussion

WTNT42 KNHC 011455

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Tropical Storm Bonnie has formed this morning over the western 
Caribbean Sea. Well-organized deep convection has persisted into 
the morning, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission 
found a well-defined circulation center located about 100 n mi east 
of the Nicaragua coast. The plane found flight-level winds of 44 
kt in the northeast quadrant, and SFMR data indicated 33 kt surface 
winds, supporting an initial intensity of 35 kt. Another 
reconnaissance mission is scheduled later today.

Bonnie is moving just south of due west at 260/17 kt and has 
tracked slightly farther south than the prior forecast. The storm 
is expected to make landfall late tonight near the Nicaragua and 
Costa Rica border. After traversing Central America, Bonnie is 
expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and 
it is forecast to turn west-northwestward shortly thereafter and 
track parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico for the 
next several days. The track guidance is in good agreement during 
the forecast period, with the ECMWF still the northernmost solution 
and closest to land, while remaining offshore. The new forecast is 
slightly south of the previous forecast, partially based on the 
initial motion and position. Given the expected proximity to land, 
interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico 
should continue to monitor Bonnie's progress during the next 
several days.

Bonnie remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment and is 
forecast to intensify during the next 12 hours prior to landfall. 
The official intensity forecast at 12 hours is at the high end of 
the intensity guidance. After Bonnie emerges into the eastern 
Pacific, the intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and 
aligned with the consensus intensity guidance for the remainder of 
the forecast period.


1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa
Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides are expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and along the Pacific 
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday.


INIT  01/1500Z 11.2N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 11.0N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 11.0N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/0000Z 11.1N  88.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  03/1200Z 11.7N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  04/0000Z 12.5N  93.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 13.4N  96.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 15.1N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 16.3N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH

Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

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