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Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Discussion


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WTNT42 KNHC 020239
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and 
satellite imagery indicate that the center of Bonnie has just made 
landfall near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border.  The aircraft 
reported that prior to landfall, Bonnie was forming an inner wind 
core with a radius of maximum winds of 5-10 n mi, and on the last 
fix a 10 n mi wide eye was present.  The maximum flight-level winds 
were 61 kt at 850 mb, and the maximum reliable surface wind 
estimates from the SFMR were in the 40-45 kt range.  Based on these 
data, the landfall intensity is set to a possibly conservative 45 
kt.

The initial motion is now 270/14.  A mid- to upper-level ridge to 
the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward for the 
next 24 h or so, with the center crossing southern Nicaragua and 
northern Costa Rica before reaching the eastern Pacific Saturday 
morning.  After that, the cyclone should turn west-northwestward 
parallel to the southern coasts of Central America and Mexico, with 
this general motion persisting through the remainder of the 
forecast period.  The track forecast guidance is tightly clustered, 
and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous 
track.  Given the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal 
El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to 
monitor Bonnie's progress during the next several days.

Bonnie's small inner core will probably not survive the passage 
over land during the next 12 h, but the cyclone is still expected to 
be a tropical storm when it reaches the eastern Pacific.  Once 
there, warm sea surface temperatures and a light shear environment 
should allow re-intensification, and Bonnie is now forecast to 
reach hurricane status about two days after it moves into the 
Pacific.  The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from 
the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and 
Costa Rica through Saturday. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides are expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean 
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning 
areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of 
Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 10.9N  83.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  02/1200Z 10.9N  85.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/0000Z 11.0N  88.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 36H  03/1200Z 11.6N  90.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 12.4N  93.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  04/1200Z 13.3N  96.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 14.2N  99.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 15.5N 104.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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