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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 030858
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202021
500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021

Victor remains a sheared tropical cyclone with intense deep 
convection having developed closer to the center in the northeastern 
quadrant since the previous advisory. Satellite intensity estimates 
remain at T2.0/30 kt, so the advisory intensity remains at 30 kt. It 
is possible that Victor could have regained tropical storm status 
based on the robust convective shear pattern. For now, however, 
Victor will remain a depression until new ASCAT surface wind data 
arrive later this morning. Some fluctuations in intensity could 
occur this morning due to the aforementioned better defined shear 
pattern. By tonight, however, weakening is anticipated as Victor 
encounters southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt and 
moves into a drier air mass, which will act to decrease both the 
depth and amount of inner-core deep convection. Victor is expected 
to gradually spin down tonight and Monday, with the circulation 
opening up into a trough on Tuesday.

Victor continues to move northwestward, or 315/14 kt. A motion 
toward the northwest is forecast to continue as Victor remains 
embedded within the southeasterly flow around a deep-layer 
subtropical ridge. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just 
an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the tightly 
clustered consensus track models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 16.1N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 17.6N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 19.6N  43.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z 21.3N  45.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z 22.8N  47.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1800Z 24.3N  49.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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