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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 062036
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
500 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

By definition, the depression may no longer be considered a tropical 
cyclone.  The current convection can not really be considered 
organized, and consists of a couple of updrafts with an enhanced 
cirrus canopy due to about 40 kt of west-southwesterly shear.  This 
lack of organized deep convection with the depression has persisted 
since around 10 UTC this morning. An earlier scatterometer overpass 
showed winds no higher than 25 kt near the circulation.  Between 
this data and the latest Dvorak intensity estimates, the initial 
advisory intensity has been lowered to 25 kt.  The very strong shear 
is expected to continue to impact the depression for the foreseeable 
future while the environmental relative humidity continues to 
decrease.  Therefore, the system should be able to be declared a 
remnant low tonight, if there is no evidence that the system has 
opened up into a trough before that time.  The NHC intensity 
forecast was lowered due to the weaker initial intensity.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.  A turn 
to the west is expected by tonight while the system moves in the 
low-level flow to the south a subtropical ridge.  The NHC track 
forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is near 
the multi-model consensus tracks.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 18.8N  35.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 19.0N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/1800Z 19.0N  41.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto



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