Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 061442
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 06 2022

Deep convection redeveloped near the low-level center early this 
morning. However, since that time the convection has become sheared 
off to the east-northeast of the center and is dissipating. A recent 
partial scatterometer overpass showed some 25-30 kt wind vectors 
near the decaying convection. Therefore, the initial advisory 
intensity is set at 30 kt. Strong west-southwesterly shear is 
expected to increase further while the surrounding thermodynamic 
environment continues to dry out over the next couple of days. 
Therefore, it is still anticipated that the depression will 
degenerate into a remnant low soon, and dissipate in a day or so. 
The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt.  A turn 
to the west is expected by tonight while the system moves in the 
low-level flow around a ridge to the north. The NHC track forecast 
is little changed from the previous one and is near the multi-model 
consensus tracks. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 18.3N  34.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 18.8N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/1200Z 18.8N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto



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