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Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 222058
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021

Peter continues to just barely maintain its classification as a 
tropical cyclone. While the low-level circulation has remained 
intact today, the convection continues to be located well downshear 
to the east. However, there have been a few convective elements 
forming a bit closer to the center recently and that is the 
primarily justification for maintaining advisories on Peter as 
a tropical cyclone this afternoon. The initial intensity is 
maintained at 30 kt given the earlier scatterometer data, though 
this might be generous. Continued strong southwesterly vertical wind 
shear within a dry mid-level environment should ultimately strip the 
remaining convection away from Peter, with the tropical cyclone 
expected to finally peter out as a post-tropical remnant low in the 
next 12 hours. 

The depression has been moving very slowly recently, with an 
estimated north-northwestward motion of 340/4 kt. The cyclone is 
expected to turn northward and then north-northeastward following a 
weakness in the low-level ridge until the system finally opens up 
into a trough, sometime in the 48 to 60 hour period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 21.7N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 22.5N  66.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1800Z 23.5N  66.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0600Z 24.4N  66.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z 25.6N  65.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin



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