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Tropical Depression Nicole Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 110245
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Surface synoptic observations and Doppler radar velocities indicate
that Nicole has weakened to a tropical depression inland near the 
Florida/Georgia border.  Maximum sustained winds are estimated to 
be 30 kt, and the surface data indicate that the minimum pressure 
has risen to 992 mb.  Although Nicole has weakened, it is still a 
significant rainfall producer.

Nicole continues moving northwestward, or at about 320/13 kt.  The 
cyclone is moving on the western side of a mid-level ridge.  During 
the next day or so, the system should accelerate 
north-northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of a large 
trough until it dissipates.

Continued gradual weakening will occur while Nicole moves farther
inland during the next day or so.  By Friday night, the system is
expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large
mid-latitude weather system over the eastern United States.


Key Messages:

1. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall tonight across the Florida 
Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions 
of the Florida Peninsula, with renewed river flooding on the St. 
Johns River ongoing. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through 
the central Appalachians, particularly in the Blue Ridge Mountains, 
and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central 
Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 30.7N  84.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 33.0N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  12/0000Z 37.0N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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