Currently Active Systems

Tropical Depression Nicole Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 111442
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1000 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022

Satellite imagery, NWS radar data, and surface observations across
the southeastern U.S. indicate that Nicole still has a well-enough
defined circulation and sufficient convective organization to be
classified as a tropical depression. Surface observations reveal
that its central pressure has risen to near 1001 mb while its
strongest sustained winds are near 25 kt. Those winds are occuring
just offshore of Georgia and South Carolina. Although Nicole's winds
are decreasing, the threat of heavy rain which could lead to flash
flooding across portions of the Appalachians will continue today.
There is also a threat of tornadoes today, especially well to the
northeast of Nicole's center in eastern North Carolina and Virginia.

The depression accelerated northward earlier this morning and now
appears to be turning north-northeastward as previously forecast.
The surface circulation of Nicole will likely become poorly defined
and the system will become post-tropical as it continues to
accelerate north-northeastward this afternoon and tonight.

Since Nicole is a tropical depression with no tropical wind or storm
surge watches or warnings, this will be the last advisory issued by
the National Hurricane Center. Future advisories will be issued by
the Weather Prediction Center. Products from the Weather Prediction
Center will continue to populate on the NHC website as long as
Nicole remains a flooding threat to the U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing.
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible on
Friday across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly in
the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heavy rain and isolated flooding impacts
will extend north through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania,
into western New York and northern New England by Friday night into
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1500Z 34.2N  84.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 37.7N  81.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



Source link