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Tropical Depression Lisa Forecast Discussion


037 
WTNT45 KNHC 031446
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Lisa has been inland for about 18 hours, and there are no
observations of tropical-storm-force winds.  Also, using a standard
rate of decay over land shows the cyclone weakening below tropical
storm intensity by now.  Therefore the system is being downgraded
to a tropical depression on this advisory.

Satellite fixes and observations from the Sabancuy, Mexico, radar
indicate that the cyclone continues moving mainly westward and
the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt.  Over the next couple of
days, Lisa should gradually turn to the northwest and north while
moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high.  In
2-3 days, the increasingly shallow cyclone is expected to meander
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within a weak low-level flow.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and
follows the multi-model consensus guidance, TVCA.

Lisa is forecast to move over the waters of the Bay of Campeche in
24 hours.  Global models show strong southerly to
south-southwesterly upper-level winds across most of the Gulf of
Mexico during the next few days.  The associated strong vertical
shear should prevent re-intensification.  Global model simulations
also show Lisa's mid- to upper-level vorticity maximum being sheared
north-northeastward into the northern Gulf while the low-level
circulation remains over the Bay of Campeche.  The official
intensity forecast, like the previous ones, shows the system
degenerating into a remnant low in 3 days.


Key Messages:

1. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of southeast
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 18.0N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  04/0000Z 18.2N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/1200Z 18.9N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  05/0000Z 19.8N  95.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 20.5N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 20.2N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 19.8N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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