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Tropical Depression Lisa Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 050836
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 05 2022

Lisa continues to produce a couple of clusters of convection to the 
north and east of the exposed low-level center.  This is enough to 
keep the system classifiable using the Dvorak Technique, and thus 
the cyclone is maintained as a 25-kt depression on this advisory.  
It is expected that later today strong vertical wind shear and dry 
air entrainment will stop the convection, and thus Lisa is expected 
to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 h or less.  The remnants are 
forecast to dissipate completely after 36 h.

The initial motion is 335/3.  A slow northward drift is expected 
today, followed by a slow southward drift until the system 
dissipates.  The new track forecast has only minor adjustments from 
the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 19.8N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 20.2N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z 20.4N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1800Z 20.0N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven



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