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Tropical Depression Lisa Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 050239
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1000 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Lisa continues to barely hang on to tropical cyclone status this 
evening.  The broadening low-level circulation has a single burst of 
deep convection displaced well to the northeast of the center by 
strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear.  The subjective 
satellite intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 25 kt. 
Environmental conditions are not expected to improve in the next 
couple of days. The global models forecast the mid-level environment 
to become drier and the vertical wind shear to strengthen further.  
Simulated satellite imagery shows the little remaining convection 
should collapse in less than 12 hours.  Therefore, the official 
intensity forecast now predicts Lisa will become a post-tropical 
cyclone by Saturday morning.

The depression appears to be moving slowly to the north at 3 kt. 
This decrease in forward motion seems to indicate that Lisa will not 
make as much northward progress before the low-level circulation 
stalls and drifts southward in about 12 hours or so.  The new track 
forecast now shows a turn to the south occurring sooner, similar to 
the corrected consensus aid guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 19.5N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 20.0N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0000Z 20.1N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1200Z 19.9N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 19.6N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci



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