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Tropical Depression Lisa Forecast Discussion


302 
WTNT45 KNHC 042037
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Deep convection that was associated with Lisa this morning has 
quickly weakened and become displaced well to the northeast of the 
center due strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear.  Earlier 
satellite wind data and more recent observations from an Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the overnight and 
morning convective burst did not result in any increase in strength. 
 Data from the aircraft and the scatterometer instrument suggest 
that Lisa's maximum winds are around 25 kt.  Since the shear is 
forecast to increase further and the mid-level humidity near the 
cyclone is expected to decrease, additional weakening is 
anticipated.  It is possible that some additional bursts of 
convection will occur in association with Lisa tonight and early 
Saturday, but those bursts are not likely to result in a return of 
organized deep convection.  Therefore, Lisa is forecast to become a 
post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, but this could occur as 
early as tonight if convection does not re-develop soon. 

Lisa was located a bit farther north and west of the previous 
estimates, which has resulted in an adjustment to the initial 
position and short-term forecast.  Now that Lisa has become 
vertically shallow it is expected to move slowly northward 
tonight.  It should then stall and begin a southward drift over 
the weekend before dissipation occurs. The new track forecast is 
west of the previous track and is a blend of the latest GFS and 
ECMWF model forecasts. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 19.3N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 20.0N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 20.6N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0600Z 20.3N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1800Z 19.9N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown




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