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Tropical Depression Lisa Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 041436
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Lisa has been over water for most of this morning, and deep 
convection associated with the tropical depression has increased. 
However, strong upper-level southerly winds appear to be limiting 
the majority of that convection to the north of the cyclone's 
surface center. Data from a couple of Mexican buoys located east of 
Lisa's center have not shown any signs of increasing winds, however 
we don't have any recent observations closer to the center of the 
depression. The 30 kt initial intensity was therefore based on a 
blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. An Air Force Reserve hurricane 
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Lisa this afternoon and 
should provide more information about its winds and structure.

It's possible that Lisa could briefly re-attain tropical storm 
status this afternoon before an expected increase in the 
aforementioned wind shear and intrusions of dry air bring an end to 
the window for strengthening tonight. Lisa is forecast to lose its 
organized deep convection within about 36 h and dissipate about a 
day later, based on the latest dynamical hurricane and global model 
guidance. 

The depression has turned toward the northwest and is still 
forecast to slow down and begin to meander over the western Bay of 
Campeche by tomorrow. Exactly how far north Lisa gets will likely 
be determined in part by how long it remains a tropical cyclone 
since most of the northward steering flow is coming from the 
upper-levels, which won't affect Lisa's motion when it becomes a 
shallow remnant low. The NHC track forecast has been nudged 
northward at most forecast times, and lies between the previous 
official forecast and the latest multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 19.1N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 19.8N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 20.6N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 20.6N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 20.3N  95.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



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