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Tropical Depression Katia Forecast Discussion



000
WTNT44 KNHC 041433
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Katia Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122023
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 04 2023

Katia continues to produce small areas of convection well north of 
the center, but they aren't showing much organization. If the 
convective pattern does not improve, Katia will likely be declared 
a remnant low this evening.  A partial scatterometer pass indicated 
maximum winds of 30 kt, so this will stay as the initial wind 
speed. 

The cyclone should gradually weaken in a moderate shear, low 
relative humidity environment, and this is indicated in the NHC 
forecast and all of the model guidance.  The dry environment will 
likely cause Katia to become a remnant low soon, similar to the 
model simulated satellite forecasts.  Katia is moving slower to the 
northwest, and should executive a slow clockwise loop over the next 
couple of days as its poleward motion is blocked by a low-level 
ridge.  A steadier southward course should begin late Wednesday due 
to the ridge building to Katia's west.  No notable changes were 
made to the intensity or track forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 28.0N  34.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 28.4N  34.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1200Z 28.6N  34.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 28.6N  34.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 28.1N  33.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  07/0000Z 27.2N  33.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 26.0N  33.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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