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Tropical Depression Katia Forecast Discussion

WTNT44 KNHC 040844

Tropical Depression Katia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122023
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 04 2023

Katia barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone at this time.  The 
system is producing a few puffs of deep convection over the 
northern portion of its circulation.  Earlier scatterometer data 
indicated that the cyclone had weakened to a tropical depression 
and the current intensity estimate is kept at 30 kt.  This is in 
good agreement with various objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The depression is moving northwestward, or at about 310/6 kt.  
Katia's northwestward progress will soon be blocked by a high 
pressure area ahead of it.  Then, the flow on the southwestern side 
of a large cyclone over the eastern Atlantic is likely to cause the 
system to make a U-Turn and move slowly southeastward to 
south-southeastward in 24 to 72 hours.  The official forecast is a 
blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions and is similar to the previous 
NHC track.

Katia should remain in an environment of very dry low- to mid-level 
air with moderate vertical shear.  Therefore, the cyclone is likely 
to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate in a few 
days.  This is also consistent with various global model 


INIT  04/0900Z 27.7N  33.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 28.0N  34.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 28.4N  34.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 28.5N  34.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 28.2N  33.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1800Z 27.7N  33.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 26.7N  33.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Pasch

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