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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT45 KNHC 010839
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 01 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area over the 
North Atlantic west of the Azores has developed a well-defined 
circulation and convective banding in the eastern semicircle.  Based 
on this structure, advisories are being initiated on Tropical 
Depression Five with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

Despite the high latitude, the cyclone is in an area of light 
steering currents on the southeast and south side of an anomalously 
strong mid-level anticyclone.  This should result in a slow motion 
for the next three days or so, with the guidance showing an eastward 
drift followed by a westward drift.  After three days, the 
anticyclone is forecast to move eastward and weaken as the 
mid-latitude westerlies start encroaching on the system.  The 
large-scale models are not in good agreement with how this will 
steer the cyclone, with the GFS and Canadian showing a general 
motion toward the east while the UKMET and ECMWF forecast a more 
northward motion.  The track forecast is close to all of the 
guidance for the first three days, and then calls for a 
northeastward motion between the HFIP Corrected Consensus and the 
other consensus models at days 4 and 5.

The sea surface temperatures in the area are warmer than normal - 
near 27C.  This warm water, combined with a forecast environment of 
light- to moderate westerly shear for the next three days or so, 
should allow steady strengthening.  The intensity forecast calls for 
the system to become a tropical storm later today, a hurricane in 
about two days, and reach a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 4 days. 
It should be noted that this forecast is close to the intensity 
consensus, and there are models forecasting more intensification.  
After four days, motion over cooler water and increasing shear 
should cause the cyclone to weaken.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 38.1N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 38.2N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 38.2N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 38.1N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 38.0N  44.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 38.2N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 39.5N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 41.5N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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