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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 290232
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 28 2022


There's been little change of note with the depression this 
evening. All of its deep convection is displaced well to the 
northeast of its center of circulation. In the absence of recent 
ASCAT data, the intensity is based on the subjective Dvorak 
classifications from TAFB and SAB which suggest an intensity of 
25-30 kt. Conservatively the advisory intensity was held at 30 kt, 
but this may be generous.

There was a slight westward adjustment to the position of the 
depression at 00Z, which resulted in an adjustment of the track 
forecast in that direction. Otherwise there's no change to any 
thinking behind the forecast. The depression should continue 
heading generally northwestward or north-northwestward for a day 
or two. The environment around the cyclone is forecast to quickly 
get very hostile, which should prevent strengthening and should 
cause it to dissipate within a few days, as indicated by all 
dynamical models. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain near 
the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 17.2N  35.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 18.6N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 20.7N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 23.1N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 26.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky



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