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Subtropical Storm Wanda Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 010236
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Wanda Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212021
300 AM GMT Mon Nov 01 2021

Dry air continues to wrap into the circulation of Wanda, and
consequently, the system is only producing small fragmented
bands of deep convection.  An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago
showed maximum winds of about 45 kt in the northwestern quadrant
of the storm, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that
value.  This intensity estimate is also in line with the satellite
classification from TAFB.

After moving east-southeastward for much of the day, Wanda has
abruptly turned southwestward with the latest initial motion
estimated to be 215/7 kt.  This erratic motion is related to the
upper-level low that Wanda is co-located with.  The storm is likely
to turn back toward the east-southeast or east on Monday and then
track to the northeast on Tuesday as the storm moves in the flow
between the associated trough and a building ridge to its east.  By
Thursday and Friday, however, the models show another ridge building
to the north and west of Wanda, and that should slow its northward
progress and will likely cause the storm to turn eastward or
southeastward again by the end of the forecast period.  The NHC
track forecast has been adjusted southward at days 4 and 5, trending
toward the latest models.

Wanda is likely to remain fairly steady in strength during the next 
several days as dry air and relatively cool SSTs continue to affect 
the system.  The models are in good agreement, and the NHC intensity 
forecast is unchanged from the previous one.  Even though the 
storm's intensity is not expected to change much, it will likely 
transition to a tropical cyclone during the next day or so as it 
continues to separate from the nearby fronts and upper low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 35.6N  44.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 35.1N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 35.1N  42.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  02/1200Z 36.0N  41.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 37.4N  40.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  03/1200Z 39.2N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 40.9N  39.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 43.1N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 43.0N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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