Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Subtropical Storm Nicole Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 070859
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022
0900 UTC MON NOV 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND 
BAHAMA ISLAND...AND BIMINI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF NICOLE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  68.5W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N  68.5W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N  68.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.3N  69.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 220SE   0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  40SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.2N  72.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...240NE  90SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.6N  74.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT...400NE  60SE 210SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.8N  77.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE   0SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...400NE  90SE 120SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...300NE  90SE  90SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N  83.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 32.8N  80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N  68.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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