Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Subtropical Storm Nicole Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 080853
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022
0900 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA 
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF FLORIDA
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  71.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE   0SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 270SE 180SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  71.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N  71.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 27.6N  73.3W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...320NE 120SE  60SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N  75.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...400NE 120SE  90SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.9N  77.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...400NE  90SE  90SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N  79.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...320NE  90SE  90SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.0N  82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...210NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 30.9N  83.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...240NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 38.8N  76.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N  71.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




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