Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Subtropical Storm Nicole Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 080252
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022
0300 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HALLANDALE BEACH
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM SURGE WARNING 
FROM NORTH PALM BEACH NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...INCLUDING THE 
MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA.
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
HALLANDALE BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE ON TUESDAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  71.1W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE   0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 270SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  71.1W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N  70.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.4N  72.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...260NE 180SE   0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N  74.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...300NE 150SE  50SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.7N  76.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...300NE  90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N  78.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...320NE  90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.5N  81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...300NE  90SE  90SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.9N  82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE  80SE  80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 33.1N  80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 41.2N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N  71.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




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