000 WTNT22 KNHC 080252 TCMAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022 0300 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A STORM SURGE WARNING FROM NORTH PALM BEACH NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA. * HALLANDALE BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH PALM BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND * MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO GEORGETOWN A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO HALLANDALE BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH PALM BEACH TO HALLANDALE BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 71.1W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......270NE 270SE 0SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 270SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 71.1W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 70.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.4N 72.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...260NE 180SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 74.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...300NE 150SE 50SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.7N 76.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...300NE 90SE 150SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 78.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...320NE 90SE 150SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.5N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 90SE 90SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.9N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 80SE 80SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 33.1N 80.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 41.2N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 71.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH