Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Subtropical Storm Nicole Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 072100 CCA
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172022
2100 UTC MON NOV 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND 
ELEUTHERA.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER SOUTH TO EAST PALATKA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...AND ELEUTHERA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
HALLANDALE BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO HALLANDALE BEACH
* MOUTH OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER TO EAST PALATKA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND SOUTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA...AND
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  70.6W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 120SE  90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  70.6W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  70.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.3N  71.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE   0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 27.6N  73.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 150SE  50SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.0N  75.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...300NE  90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.7N  77.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE   0SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...320NE  90SE 150SW 320NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...300NE  90SE  90SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...200NE  80SE  80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.2N  82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 37.5N  73.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N  70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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