Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 785

   Mesoscale Discussion 0785
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0507 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142207Z - 142330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon,
   and an instance or two of marginally severe hail cannot be ruled
   out. A WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular and multicellular storms have been
   percolating in intensity across portions of eastern CO into western
   KS. These storms are overspreading a deep boundary layer with large
   rainwater evaporation potential, with surface temperatures
   approaching 90 F amid low 40s dewpoints. Given the 40-50 F spreads
   and inverted-v vertical thermodynamic profiles extending to nearly
   500 mb, the ongoing storms should be high-based. 21Z mesoanalysis
   shows 9.5-10 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates within the boundary layer,
   suggesting that rainfall evaporation will support enough downward
   momentum transport to potentially produce a couple of severe gusts.
   One of the heavier/wetter storm cores may also contain some hail.
   Nonetheless, the severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance
   is unlikely.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37890491 38880469 39610354 39960222 39870109 39210030
               38319999 37670007 37050099 36820310 37330410 37890491