Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 708

   Mesoscale Discussion 0708
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082044Z - 082215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts
   continues across southern New England.

   DISCUSSION...A large supercell has developed in southern
   Massachusetts where temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s with
   dewpoints in the mid 60s. This has yielded 500 to 750 J/kg MLCAPE.
   Despite this relatively weak instability, storm organization due to
   70 knots of 0-6km shear (per BOX VWP), has been sufficient for
   supercell maintenance. This intense storm will continue to pose a
   severe wind and large hail threat as it moves east and the
   downstream environment continues to destabilize ahead of it. In
   addition, some storms are starting to develop to the west of this
   supercell on the trailing outflow. Given a similarly warm and
   unstable environment, one or two more strong to severe storms may
   form and move along this outflow boundary this afternoon/evening.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41887391 42287322 42597149 42417095 41847080 41447076
               41387114 41127173 41087259 41007341 41097377 41297399
               41887391