Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 702

   Mesoscale Discussion 0702
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

   Areas affected...eastern New York into southern New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081823Z - 082030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed rapidly in the wake of a warm
   front and mid-level clouds across eastern New York. With
   temperatures warming into the 70s to low 80s. However, coincident
   with this heating, low-level moisture has mixed-out substantially
   across central New York. There remains a favorable corridor with
   deeper moisture directly behind the front where sufficient
   instability may support some stronger storms with the potential for
   large hail. Damaging wind gusts may also be possible given the dry
   mid-levels and deeply mixed boundary later. Within the narrow
   corridor of greater instability directly behind the warm front, some
   stronger storms are possible given moderate instability and strong
   deep layer shear (60-70 knots per SPC mesoanalysis). The narrow
   corridor of the threat should keep strong storms somewhat isolated
   and therefore, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 05/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   41247094 41177287 41527427 41917487 41997512 43837416
               43797185 42787075 42047066 41247094