Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 678

   Mesoscale Discussion 0678
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Areas affected...parts of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071905Z - 072130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop by late afternoon, with a
   conditional threat of very large hail. A small Slight Risk is also
   being added to the 20Z convective outlook.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from Dallas
   southwestward toward Del Rio, with generally weak wind convergence.
   Ample low-level moisture exists south and east of the boundary, with
   70s F dewpoints and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Convective
   inhibition continues to decrease due to heating, as temperature rise
   into the upper 80s to near 90 F. 

   Visible imagery shows increasing CU fields west of the I-35 corridor
   from Austin to San Antonio, particularly along the west edge of a
   thicker but eroding cloud deck. 

   Over the next few hours, isolated severe storms may form over this
   small region. Relatively long and straight hodographs along with the
   deepening moist boundary layer and very strong instability will
   conditionally support very large hail. Splitting cells may occur as
   well, with left movers also producing hail.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 05/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30309952 30809874 31109823 31239787 31289741 30949691
               30409700 29559766 29179831 29059965 29230010 29570021
               29889996 30309952