Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 676

   Mesoscale Discussion 0676
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1214 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024

   Areas affected...central/eastern IL...western/northern IN...and
   southwest Lower MI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 071714Z - 071915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A few supercells are expected to develop from central to
   eastern Illinois into western Indiana by mid-afternoon. Large hail
   and isolated damaging winds will be the primary threat west, with
   tornado potential becoming greater east.

   DISCUSSION...Pronounced boundary-layer recovery is ongoing in the
   wake of an earlier morning QLCS with robust insolation beneath the
   eastern periphery of a central Great Plains elevated mixed-layer.
   Low-level convergence along the surface cold front is expected to
   strengthen as the nose of an intense mid/upper-level jet overspreads
   the boundary through the afternoon. While convective development is
   largely expected to remain on the northern gradient of the richer
   low-level moisture/larger buoyancy spreading into the Lower OH
   Valley, the highly favorable mid to upper-level wind profiles will
   support splitting supercell structures as convection matures.
   Low-level flow will become increasingly veered near the front from
   west to east, suggesting that large hail and isolated damaging winds
   should be the primary threat with western extent. The risk for a few
   tornadoes will be greater with eastern extent, including potential
   for a strong tornado in IN.

   ..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   39298869 39798926 40288944 41008964 41788939 41978901
               42318856 42438755 42578585 42068512 40968572 39858640
               39308767 39298869