Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 653

   Mesoscale Discussion 0653
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0245 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024

   Areas affected...South-central KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...189...

   Valid 061945Z - 062045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187, 189 continues.

   SUMMARY...Initial supercells just east of Dodge City will intensify
   as they move eastward across south-central Kansas. Very large hail
   with an increasing threat for a strong tornado is anticipated by
   21-22z (4-5pm).

   DISCUSSION...A trio of convective updrafts continue to build just
   east of the Dodge City area. Low-level hodographs remain enlarged
   about a county downstream of these supercells. As this activity
   spreads east into the greater SRH environment, tornado threat should
   be expected to increase rapidly. Modified 18Z DDC sounding with 19Z
   surface observations suggest MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg should be
   common into south-central KS in the Pratt-Medicine Lodge vicinity.
   Lesser buoyancy is still prevalent farther east towards Wichita, but
   a 50-80 mile wedge of clearing will promote rapid destabilization
   into early evening.

   ..Grams.. 05/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38249924 38459798 38029753 37459742 37159763 37039817
               36989903 37059945 37559955 38249924