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Mesoscale Discussion 652 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0652 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Areas affected...Western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188... Valid 061900Z - 062100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue to show signs of intensification across western SD. As such, the severe threat across western portions of WW 183 continues. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a trio of discrete cells have become better organized along a cold front as it shifts east/northeast. This intensification has been slow, but MRMS vertically integrated ice and MESH metrics show these cells approaching severe limits. Additionally, organized mesocyclones have been noted in velocity data with some of these cells. Although the effective warm sector remains very narrow immediately ahead of these cells, continued profile cooling via persistent/strong synoptic ascent coupled with gradual low-level warming is supporting SBCAPE values approaching 2000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear vectors and low-level SRH continues to favor discrete to semi-discrete storm modes with the potential for large hail and at least a low-end tornado threat - especially where temperatures have warmed into the low 70s, allowing for better low-level buoyancy to support stronger lifting/stretching of environmental SRH and ambient vorticity along the boundary. Given the very limited extent of the warm sector, the severe threat for the next 1-2 hours should be relatively confined to areas downstream of ongoing/developing convection. ..Moore.. 05/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 43270156 43800185 44460252 44730320 44880397 45120463 45450479 45900438 46010400 46020325 45980226 45760154 45200111 44560082 43950082 43540093 43280103 43220140 43270156 |
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