Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1775

   Mesoscale Discussion 1775
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0604 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern NE and southwestern IA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582...

   Valid 312304Z - 010000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 582
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A swath of 75-90 mph wind gusts is possible with an MCS
   moving eastward across southeastern Nebraska into southwestern IA
   through at least 01Z.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2250Z, radar data from KOAX indicates a
   well-organized, forward-propagating MCS tracking east-northeastward
   across southeastern NE into southwestern IA at around 45 kt. This
   MCS has a well-established rear-inflow jet and northern book-end
   vortex. Wind gusts upwards of 80-90 mph have been reported with the
   MCS in southeastern NE. Downstream, extreme surface-based
   instability (4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE) and around 40 kt of deep-layer
   shear (per VWP data) oriented perpendicular the gust front should
   support the maintenance of this MCS across southeastern IA through
   at least 01Z. Wind gusts of 75-90 mph are the main concern, and
   brief mesovortex tornadoes will also remain possible.

   ..Weinman.. 07/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41149604 41509632 41759621 42089581 42199529 42189496
               42099459 41539423 40909446 40639503 40539567 40689597
               41149604