Mesoscale Discussion 1628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Areas affected...Parts of western/central NY/PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 151552Z - 151745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to increase with time this afternoon, with damaging wind, isolated hail, and a tornado or two all possible. Watch issuance is possible by early/mid afternoon. DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV is moving across southeast lower MI late this morning, with another MCV noted over central OH. Downstream of these MCVs, filtered heating of a relatively moist environment will result in MLCAPE increasing into the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Meanwhile, relatively enhanced midlevel flow to the south of the northernmost MCV will support effective shear of 30-40 kt into the afternoon, resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for organized convection across parts of western/central NY/PA. Ongoing convection over southern ON and northeast Lake Erie may eventually spread into parts of western NY and over Lake Ontario through late morning, which could pose a threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail. Stronger redevelopment is expected by early/mid afternoon from eastern Lake Erie into parts of western NY/northwest PA, in closer proximity to the approaching MCV. Storm coverage with southward extent is more uncertain, but eventual development into a larger portion of western/central PA will also be possible. A tendency toward storm clustering and possible development of a compact MCS is currently expected, with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts as storms move eastward through the afternoon. A couple supercells will also be possible, especially early in the storm evolution, which could pose a threat for isolated hail and possibly a tornado or two. Watch issuance will become increasingly possible early this afternoon in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Hart.. 07/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 43847610 43157601 41807624 41037696 40857797 40897982 41148030 42088030 42837976 43817873 43847610
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1628

15
Jul