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Mesoscale Discussion 1591 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1591 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Areas affected...the northwest NE Panhandle and far southwest SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 130420Z - 130515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A pair of strong to marginally severe storms may persist through about 06Z, but an overall weakening trend is expected overnight. DISCUSSION...A couple of more robust storms are ongoing near the WY/SD/NE border area to the west-southwest of a weakening cluster over southwest SD. This activity appears to be supported by stronger effective bulk shear despite ever-increasing MLCIN and displacement from greater low-level moisture across central to southern NE. A branch of the southerly low-level jet as sampled by the GLD VWP appears to further aiding these storms that are capable of producing isolated severe hail and wind. Evening CAM guidance is insistent on this activity decaying rapidly overnight as this lobe of the low-level jet weakens, while the TX/OK Panhandles to central KS branch dominates during the early morning. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43230379 43220252 43050190 42730162 42320184 42190238 42230302 42440370 42830409 43230379 |
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