Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1589

   Mesoscale Discussion 1589
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0812 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

   Areas affected...west-central to eastern ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521...

   Valid 130112Z - 130245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 521
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A mixed severe hail/wind threat may spread east of WW 521
   and necessitate a downstream severe thunderstorm watch issuance into
   eastern North Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...While a late afternoon-early evening supercell has
   fully decayed, its lingering outflow continues to progress east
   around 30 kts in a portion of north-central ND. Multiple cells
   intensified along the north/south-oriented portion of the outflow
   into a small linear cluster. These should persist eastward through
   the rest of the evening given the large MLCAPE reservoir downstream
   as sampled by the 00Z BIS/ABR soundings. While measured gusts have
   thus far remained sub-severe, MBX VWP data has sampled rear-inflow
   in the 30-40 kt range. It is plausible that further cold pool
   strengthening may occur over the next couple hours before nocturnal
   MLCIN increases. If this process does occur, the severe wind
   potential could increase into a part of eastern ND, east of WW 521.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/13/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48640055 48989957 48889815 47599796 47039810 46679878
               46719978 47120083 47040257 47340288 47600153 47790099
               48170066 48640055