MD 1800 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024
Areas affected...southeastern Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 030053Z - 030230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Marginal risk of strong to severe wind will continue
through the evening.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms ongoing across southeastern Arizona have
shown strengthening in the last hour near and east of Tucson.
Temperatures across much of the region are 100+ F with dew points in
the low to mid 50s. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around
500-1500 J/kg. The 00z sounding from Tucson depicts steep low to
mid-level lapse rates, with characteristic inverted V and very dry
surface conditions. Though flow is weak, large 40-50 degree dew
point depressions and steep lapse rates will support risk for strong
to severe gusts through the evening.
..Thornton/Smith.. 08/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...
LAT...LON 31911196 32531148 32931071 32940996 32740936 32490919
32180917 31830915 31480916 31390921 31350950 31400956
31321006 31311063 31361091 31411113 31541169 31661192
31911196