Currently Active Systems

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


000
WTNT32 KNHC 300546
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 71.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua/Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas Nicaragua

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the 
Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to
Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
* North of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Colombia should 
monitor the progress of this system.  Watches or warnings may be 
required for the Colombian Islands of San Andres and Providencia 
later today.

Interests elsewhere along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua
and Costa Rica should also monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products 
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 
12.1 North, longitude 71.6 West.  The system is moving toward the 
west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a fast westward motion is expected 
through Friday.  On the forecast track, the system will emerge over 
the southwestern Caribbean Sea this morning, move westward over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea today through Friday, and then be over 
southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica by late Friday.  The 
system is then expected to move over the waters of the eastern North 
Pacific Ocean on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the 
disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela
and northeast Colombia through this morning, then across Nicaragua 
and Costa Rica by Friday. The following storm total rainfall 
amounts are expected:

North-Central Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern
Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals
around 10 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely ending within the 
warning area along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and 
will likely continue along the coast of northeastern Colombia 
through sunrise.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
in Nicaragua late Friday, and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch areas in Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday afternoon or evening.  Tropical storm conditions are also 
possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia on 
Friday.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Source link