Currently Active Systems

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


648 
WTNT32 KNHC 290855
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...DISTURBANCE SPEEDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 65.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Grenada and its dependencies has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this
system.  Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.3 North, longitude 65.4 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 30 mph (48 km/h), and a westward or west-northwestward 
motion is expected through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the 
system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the northern 
coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia 
early Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela 
and northeast Colombia today through Thursday morning. The 
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 2 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 2 to 4 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, and northeast Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and 
northeastern Colombia: 3 to 5 inches.

Localized flash flooding will be possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area 
over Islas Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning, 
and over the ABC Islands by this evening.  Tropical storm conditions 
are expected in the warning area along the northwestern coast of 
Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in 
northeastern Venezuela for the next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake




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