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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


824 
WTNT32 KNHC 290553
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
200 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR ISLA MARGARITA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 64.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...525 KM ESE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of Venezuela and the 
northern coast of Colombia should monitor the progress of this 
system.  Interests in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and along the 
Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica should also monitor 
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.1 North, longitude 64.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 26 mph (43 km/h).  A westward or west- 
northwestward motion is expected through Thursday.  On the forecast 
track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean Sea and the 
northern coast of Venezuela today, near the northeast coast of 
Colombia on Thursday and over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on 
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days while
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development while the disturbance
remains over water, and it is expected become a tropical storm while
moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.  Maurice Bishop International Airport on Grenada 
recently reported a wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the Windward Islands and northeast Venezuela
today and from the ABC Islands to portions of northwest Venezuela 
tonight.  The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches. 

Grenada, Trinidad, Tobago, and northeast Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.

Aruba, Curacao and Bonaire to northwest Venezuela: 3 to 5 inches.

These rainfall amounts could cause localized flash flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands for a few more hours, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands through this morning, and over 
the ABC Islands by this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
during the next few hours, and in the watch area along the 
northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of 
Colombia by tonight and early Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake




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